Research programme

Ongoing & forthcoming research

The Ammonia Observatory research team is currently active across six workstreams — from global pricing databases to infrastructure gap analysis. This page sets out what we are working on, what is coming next, and how you can contribute.

Currently in progress

6 active · 5 pipeline · 4 planned
R-01
Active

Global green ammonia pricing database

A structured database of green ammonia price signals — spot, contract, and indicative — across key regional markets including NW Europe, Middle East, South Asia, and East Asia. We are collecting, cleaning, and contextualising publicly available price data and triangulating against natural gas and grey ammonia benchmarks to build the first open-access pricing dataset for the green ammonia market.

Active Markets desk · Target: Q3 2026
R-02
Active

Global ammonia port infrastructure database

A comprehensive database mapping ammonia-relevant port infrastructure worldwide — storage capacity, handling equipment, safety certifications, bunkering readiness, and announced investment plans. We are surveying the top 80 ports across all major shipping corridors to identify where the infrastructure gap is most acute and where investment is most urgently needed ahead of the 2030 IMO targets.

Active Infrastructure team · Target: Q2 2026
R-03
Active

Ammonia cracking technology landscape review

A systematic review of ammonia cracking technologies — catalytic, plasma, and electrochemical — benchmarking energy efficiency, scale readiness, and cost trajectories. We are mapping every known developer from pilot to commercial stage and building a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) scorecard to help investors and offtakers understand which solutions are genuinely close to commercial deployment.

Active Technology desk · Target: Q3 2026
R-04
Active

Green ammonia offtake agreement tracker

A structured database of publicly announced offtake agreements, memoranda of understanding, and letters of intent for green ammonia — including parties, volumes, price mechanisms, and delivery corridors where disclosed. This is designed to give a clearer picture of actual demand signals versus speculative project announcements, and to track how offtake structures are evolving as the market matures.

Active Markets desk · Ongoing
R-05
Active

Policy and regulatory environment index

A country-by-country index scoring the regulatory environment for green ammonia production, import, and use across 30 key markets. We are assessing hydrogen strategies, carbon pricing frameworks, port regulations, safety standards for ammonia bunkering, and subsidy mechanisms — to help developers and investors compare jurisdictional readiness at a glance.

Active Policy desk · Target: Q4 2026
R-06
Active

Levelised cost of green ammonia (LCOA) modelling

A publicly accessible LCOA model covering the key cost components — electrolyser capex and efficiency, renewable electricity cost by region, nitrogen separation, Haber-Bosch synthesis, and financing assumptions. We are building open-source scenario models for 12 production geographies to allow cost comparisons across export corridors and to track how costs are evolving as the industry scales.

Active Economics team · Target: Q3 2026

Starting soon

R-07
Pipeline

Ammonia safety incident database

A structured review of publicly reported ammonia safety incidents at production, storage, and handling facilities — to build an evidence base for safety standards development as the industry scales into new geographies and applications, particularly maritime bunkering.

Pipeline Safety desk · Starting Q2 2026
R-08
Pipeline

Green ammonia shipping route economics

A corridor-by-corridor economic analysis of green ammonia export routes — comparing production cost at source, shipping cost, reconversion cost at destination, and landed cost versus competing fuels and local production. Covering 15 major export corridors.

Pipeline Economics team · Starting Q3 2026
R-09
Pipeline

FID readiness scoring: which projects will actually get built?

A scoring framework to assess which announced green ammonia projects have genuine final investment decision (FID) potential — evaluating offtake security, financing structure, regulatory approvals, grid connection status, and developer track record. Applied to the top 50 projects in our tracker.

Pipeline Projects team · Starting Q4 2026
R-10
Pipeline

Ammonia direct combustion engine performance benchmarking

A technical review of direct ammonia combustion engine performance — comparing MAN B&W, Wärtsilä, and emerging developers across efficiency, NOx emissions, power output, and retrofit potential. Aimed at shipping companies evaluating fuel switching strategies ahead of IMO 2030.

Pipeline Technology desk · Starting Q3 2026
R-11
Planned

Electrolyser supply chain capacity and constraints

Green ammonia production is ultimately constrained by electrolyser manufacturing capacity. We will map global electrolyser production capacity, announced expansion plans, and key supply chain bottlenecks — and model how these constraints may delay green ammonia project timelines through to 2030.

Planned Technology desk · 2027
R-12
Planned

Green ammonia certification and standards landscape

A comparative review of emerging green ammonia certification schemes — CertifHy, TÜV SÜD, and others — assessing their methodologies, criteria for "green" classification, and compatibility with importing country regulations. Critical for trade flows as certification requirements become a commercial and regulatory reality.

Planned Policy desk · 2027

Our methodology

01
Primary source only
All data is traced to primary sources — developer announcements, regulatory filings, government publications, or peer-reviewed research. We do not republish aggregated secondary data without verification.
02
Transparent assumptions
All modelling work publishes its assumptions, input ranges, and sensitivity tables. We distinguish clearly between verified facts, reasonable estimates, and speculative projections.
03
Open access by default
All research outputs are published under open access terms. We believe the ammonia energy transition is best served by freely available, high-quality data — not by paywalls.
04
Regular updates
Databases are updated monthly. Analysis pieces are updated when new information materially changes conclusions. All updates are timestamped and version-controlled.
05
Community corrections
We actively invite corrections and additions from industry, academia, and government. If you spot an error or a gap, tell us — we will review and update within five working days.
06
Independence
No research is commissioned by or reviewed by industry funders prior to publication. All findings are those of the Ammonia Observatory team alone.

Contribute to our research

We welcome data submissions, expert input, and collaboration proposals from researchers, developers, port operators, policymakers, and anyone working in the ammonia energy space. If you have data that would improve our work — or want to collaborate on a research workstream — get in touch.

Get in touch →