Research-led analysis on ammonia as a fuel and energy carrier — from technology readiness to trade economics and policy. Published by the Ammonia Observatory research team.
The economics of shipping green hydrogen as ammonia depend almost entirely on the reconversion step. Current state-of-the-art crackers operate at around 70–80% efficiency at scale, but the break-even economics for key import corridors require efficiencies above 85%. Our team models the scenarios across five major corridors — Australia to Japan, Middle East to Europe, Chile to Germany, Namibia to Netherlands, and Canada to UK — and identifies where the technology gap is most commercially consequential.
The International Maritime Organization's revised greenhouse gas strategy sets a 20% reduction in shipping emissions by 2030. Ammonia is widely viewed as the most viable zero-carbon fuel at scale — but the bunkering infrastructure simply does not exist yet. Our team maps port investment commitments made so far and identifies the critical gaps across the top 20 ammonia-relevant shipping corridors.
The first quarter of 2026 saw 14 new green ammonia project announcements, adding a combined 3.2 MTPA of potential future capacity. Our data team reviews what was announced, which regions are seeing the most activity, and which projects have the strongest likelihood of reaching final investment decision.
Solid oxide fuel cells running directly on ammonia avoid the energy penalty of the cracking step altogether. Several research groups are advancing SOFC technology specifically for ammonia. Our technology desk assesses the current state of play and what commercialisation timelines look like for direct-ammonia power generation.
Conventional ammonia prices swung significantly through 2025, driven by natural gas price movements in Europe and Asia. Our markets team analyses how price volatility affects the green premium and what this means for offtake negotiations across key import corridors.
We surveyed publicly available information on ammonia handling, storage, and bunkering infrastructure at the world's 30 busiest ports. The findings reveal a significant readiness gap — and suggest that infrastructure, not technology, may be the binding constraint on the maritime ammonia transition.